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Rabobank expects restaurant protein costs to rise in the second half of 2019 and into 2020 because of African swine fever in China. Suppliers are reluctant to lock in longer-term prices, and US exporters face restrictions on all three major proteins to China.
Expected export demand shifting to the US for all proteins will tighten domestic supply and lift prices. Higher meat prices support demand for feed grains and meal over time.
feedstuffs.comMay 23, 2019After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
