
As of May 16, U.S. hard red winter wheat commercial sales for delivery in the 2019/20 marketing year reached a record 1.08 million metric tons. Weekly sales since early March are running more than four times the prior year's pace and double the five-year average.
Increases to Algeria, Iraq, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Thailand drove the gains.
Strong forward buying from importers supports HRW export demand and underpins new-crop Kansas City wheat prices. Analysts credit competitive global pricing and ample exportable supply.
After 102 past bullish trade events, KWHEAT moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record new-crop HRW export sales signal strong demand that supports prices, though it is a slower-moving factor.