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The World Bank's Global Trade Watch 2018 says global trade growth slowed in 2018 and stabilized in early 2019, but U.S.-China escalation could change the outlook. It notes tit-for-tat tariffs diverted trade, with large effects on soybean imports.
Diversion of soybean trade away from the U.S. toward other suppliers supports Brazilian and other origin demand while weakening U.S. soy export prices, though the report is a backward-looking analysis.
worldbank.orgMay 29, 2019After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
