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Farm Progress policy analysis by Brad Lubben examines how the ARC and PLC safety net choices have become more complex given 2019 weather and market challenges. It describes the new farm bill's changes to yield data and reference prices and expected ad hoc federal assistance.
Expanded safety-net and ad hoc aid can encourage farmers to keep storing grain or planting through low prices, which tends to keep crop supplies ample and prices subdued.
farmprogress.comBrad LubbenJun 6, 2019After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
