
Rabobank's Q2 beef update says Australia's herd has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years as drought forces heavy cattle turn-off. Strong Chinese import demand is supporting beef prices, and the eastern young cattle indicator is around 471 cents/kg.
Drought-driven herd liquidation tightens Australian beef supply, while firm Chinese import demand keeps prices supported. Prices remain volatile and depend on rainfall.
After 123 past weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.1%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 134 past weather events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.