Independent analyst Simon Quilty examines how Australia's drought has pushed cow prices down about 140c/kg since early 2017, roughly twice the fall in steer prices. He also questions whether cheaper cow meat will flow to the US and how the trade war affects cow markets.
Drought-driven herd liquidation is depressing Australian cow supply prices and could increase lower-cost beef exports to the US, adding competitive pressure on US lean beef trim.
After 18 past bearish weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.9%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.