A Gazette guest column argues that the year-round E15 rule will not offset EPA's small refinery exemptions, which it says have cut demand for hundreds of millions of gallons of biodiesel. The column says EPA granted exemptions to 35 refineries in 2017 that together produced more than 17 billion gallons of fuel.
It cites Scott Irwin's estimate of continued losses if the exemptions continue.
If exemptions continue to erode biodiesel demand, soybean oil's fuel outlet shrinks, which weighs on soybean oil prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.