MIDF Research expects weaker demand for FGV Holdings in the short to medium term due to the Covid-19 outbreak and an ongoing trade dispute with India. The research house still sees elevated crude palm oil prices for FY20 and healthy fresh fruit bunch production growth supporting earnings.
A trade spat with India could divert refined palm oil flows to Indonesia and narrow the price gap between Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, which weighs on CPO prices. Buyers should expect softer export demand for Malaysian palm products.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.