
Ukraine's grain exports for the 2019/20 season had reached 7.62 million tonnes by late August, up 2.89 million tonnes year on year. Wheat exports were 4.07 million tonnes, barley 1.75 million and corn 1.78 million, while rye shipments were negligible.
Faster Ukrainian shipments of wheat, barley and corn put more supply into export markets early in the marketing year, which is bearish for these grains in world trade.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.