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A Pennsylvania revenue update reports that US food-at-home prices fell 0.9% year over year through August 2016, with milk prices down nearly 20% over two years. It attributes the dairy slump to weaker overseas demand, a stronger dollar against major importers, and Russia's ban on Western agricultural imports.
Whole milk powder exports to China and Mexico have fallen sharply.
A stronger dollar and weaker export demand keep dairy prices under pressure, which reduces the value of milk-based feed ingredients and points to soft demand for dairy product inputs.
ifo.state.pa.usOct 3, 2016After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
