
BIMCO says dry bulk freight rates have fallen from multi-year highs as supply growth outpaces demand, a trend it expects to continue into 2020. It also notes that US soybean exports during the main season are running below prior years because of the trade war and China's pig cull.
Oversupplied dry bulk tonnage pushes freight rates lower, which supports cheaper grain shipping. Weaker Chinese soybean demand from ASF-driven herd losses also reduces export volumes and pressures soybean prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.