
US lean hog futures fell more than 4% on Nov 20, with February hogs hitting their lowest since Sept. 10 after doubts over a US-China trade deal grew.
China criticized a US Senate bill on Hong Kong human rights, and reports said completion of a phase one trade deal could slip into next year.
Uncertainty over China pork export access is removing expected premiums from deferred hog futures, a bearish signal for hog prices and related feed demand.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.