
US sunflower ending stocks are headed for their lowest level in five years before any expected yield cut is factored in. South and North Dakota, the top two producing states, received 150% to 600% above normal rainfall over the last 90 days, causing disease pressure.
Tightening US sunflower supplies and wet-weather disease losses support sunflower meal and the broader vegetable oil complex as global vegetable oil supplies tighten.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.