
EU sunflower seed output, previously forecast at 10 million tonnes, faces downward revision risk. Bulgarian and Romanian harvests are coming in below expectations due to heat during pollination.
Oil content in some seed has fallen to as low as 38%, versus the usual 42-46%.
Lower yields and oil content reduce EU sunflower crush supply, tightening sunflower oil and meal availability and supporting prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.