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India holds its fourth urea purchasing tender of the second half of 2019, closing 14 November with shipment by 19 December. China has supplied about half of the 3.7m tonnes bought in recent Indian tenders, with prices falling each round.
Chinese participation at low netbacks keeps global urea prices under pressure, while any Chinese restraint could support prices from other suppliers.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.