Urea prices fell in all major markets, by roughly 5% in most cases, after the latest Indian tender. The tender drew over 2 million tons of offers and was fixed at about $575/t CFR India, below the October level of $650/t.
India accepted 1.4 million tons, well above its 500,000-600,000 ton target.
A large Indian purchase at a lower price pulled Middle East FOB urea down by about $40/t to around $550/t. Weak demand elsewhere means further pressure on urea prices for feed and crop input buyers.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.