
Brazil plans to raise its mandatory biodiesel blend in diesel to 15% by 2023, with 1 percentage point annual increases after that. About 80% of Brazil's biodiesel is made from soybean oil.
The change would reduce diesel imports and increase domestic soybean demand.
Higher domestic biodiesel mandates absorb more soybean oil in Brazil, tightening export supplies of oil and supporting soybean prices. The effect on soybean meal is smaller since crushing volumes are driven by meal demand.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.