
AgRural reported Brazil's soybean planting reached 46% of the 2019/20 estimated area as of early November, behind last year's 60% but slightly ahead of the five-year average of 45%. Brazil is expected to harvest a record 121 million tons on a 1.3% larger planted area of 36.4 million hectares.
A record Brazilian crop expectation is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal export prices, while planting delays create offsetting weather risk. The net effect is modest pressure on soy complex prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.