
Jim Robb of the Livestock Marketing Information Center told a Nebraska cattle symposium that a shrinking calf crop and steady consumer demand may push calf prices higher from 2020. He said cattle feeding returns turned positive in December, with closeouts projected at $125 to $150 a head.
A tightening beef supply and improving feeding margins point to firmer feeder and calf prices, which raises input costs for feedlots and mixed-feed buyers.
After 21 past bullish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.