
Texas A&M's Mark Welch reports that the November WASDE cut US corn production by 118 million bushels, with yield falling to 167 bushels per acre, 3% below trend. Demand was also lowered, with feed, ethanol and exports each reduced, and ending stocks fell about 19 million bushels.
The lower production estimate tightens US ending stocks and lifts the projected season-average farm price to $3.85, above the Price Loss Coverage trigger. Lower global stocks, with days of use at their lowest since 2012 excluding China, add support to prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.