
Biodiesel blenders warn of an uncertain future because the federal blender tax credit expired at the end of 2017 and was not included in the $1.4 trillion spending agreement. Backers are pushing for reinstatement before the temporary spending resolution expires on December 20.
Without the blender credit, biodiesel margins weaken and blending demand for soybean oil and other fats may fall. Reinstatement would support soybean oil prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.