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CBOT July soybean oil futures fell 4.1% to 53.66 cents per pound after EPA released the 2023 to 2025 biodiesel blending mandate. Mintec cited a sell-the-fact reaction after expectations had been priced in.
The volume targets matched expectations, so the market sold off as the rumored support was confirmed. Soybean oil prices are bearish until the market finds a new level.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.