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The IRI's January 2020 ENSO Quick Look reports that sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific were near borderline weak El Niño levels in mid-January, while atmospheric patterns remained mostly neutral. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño during winter, returning to neutral by early spring.
A weak El Niño tending to fade by spring implies limited threat to Southeast Asian palm and Australian crops, so it adds little price pressure to grains or oilseeds.
iri.columbia.eduJan 21, 2020After 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 349 past report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
