
USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Censky said EPA's use of DOE recommendations to estimate 2020 small refinery exemptions was a good start, though farm groups wanted a three-year average of about 1.35 billion gallons instead of the roughly 700 million gallons used. EPA had received 21 exemption requests for 2019.
The gap between projected and expected exemptions shapes RFS biofuel demand for soybean oil and corn ethanol, creating ongoing price uncertainty.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.