
India's halt on Malaysian palm oil imports has disrupted global edible oil trade, with Indonesia diverting supplies to India and Malaysia seeking markets left behind. Indonesian palm prices have climbed to a rare premium to Malaysian levels on expectations of higher Indian purchases.
Benchmark prices rose 60% from July to December but have recently fallen on Indian demand concerns and the China coronavirus outbreak.
Redirected flows and a narrowing spread between palm and other oils encourage substitution away from palm, weighing on palm prices while supporting competing vegetable oils.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.