
ADI Analytics projects US renewable diesel capacity rising from about 26,000 barrels per day in 2019 to 171,000 barrels per day over the next five years. Growth is driven by federal and state regulations and RFS incentives.
Large capacity growth implies substantially higher soybean oil and animal fat feedstock demand through 2025. This supports vegoil prices over the medium term.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.