Refiners including HollyFrontier and CVR Energy are adding renewable diesel production to cut costs at older refineries and offset blending compliance costs. Only about 1.3 million barrels of renewable diesel were produced in 2019, a small share of diesel output.
Federal and state incentives, including a $1 per gallon blender's credit that expires in 2022, drive investment.
Growing renewable diesel output would pull more fats and oils into fuel production, supporting vegetable oil prices. Logistical limits may slow this demand growth.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.