The EPA published its final Renewable Fuel Standard rule setting 2020 renewable fuel percentage standards for cellulosic, biomass-based diesel, advanced and total renewable fuel. The rule uses statutory waiver authority because projected cellulosic volumes fall short of statutory levels, and it also sets the 2021 biomass-based diesel volume.
Biomass-based diesel blending mandates pull soybean oil and other feedstocks into biofuel use, supporting soybean oil and related vegoil prices. The waiver-driven volumes are below statutory targets, so the demand impact is meaningful but not a surprise.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.