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State buyer RCF issued an urea import tender in India on 21 March, closing 30 March, with shipments required by 5 May. India then announced a nationwide lockdown and several Indian ports issued force majeure notices, but the tender was still expected to proceed.
Global urea demand has been weak, and North African producers cut prices by $15-20/t to find liquidity.
A large Indian import tender would normally support urea prices, but weak importer demand, port disruption and force majeure notices are pulling the other way. Expect soft offers in the near term unless the tender draws strong bids.
profercy.comChris YearsleyMar 27, 2020After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
