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Chinese soymeal and rapeseed meal futures rallied sharply after a research paper reported a trial African swine fever vaccine, reaching multi-month highs. Researchers stressed the vaccine is far from broad rollout and remains uncertain.
Hopes for ASF control could eventually rebuild the Chinese hog herd and feed demand, but the vaccine is not yet available, so the rally is largely sentiment-driven.
commodityconversations.comAgriCensusMar 4, 2020After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
