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The EFSA journal article analyses the same HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in Europe from November 2019 to February 2020, linking the virus to wild bird migration from Africa. It concludes that the risk of further westward spread is decreasing with the approaching spring migration.
The assessment of declining spread risk points to limited disruption to European poultry output, so feed demand impact is small.
doi.orgEuropean Food Safety Authority, Cornelia Adlhoch, Alice Fusaro, Thijs Kuiken, Éric Niqueux, Christoph Staubach, et al.Mar 1, 2020After 645 past disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 615 past disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
