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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr reports that long-range National Weather Service forecasts call for warm, wet conditions to persist into summer across much of the Corn Belt. Saturated ground from 2019's flooding raises concern about planting delays, especially in the eastern Midwest.
El Niño and sunspot cycles are cited as possible influences on weather into 2021.
A wet spring threatening planting timeliness could tighten corn and soybean supply expectations, supporting prices, though long-range forecasts are unreliable.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrMar 24, 2020After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
