
Iowa State's spring outlook shows elevated odds of warmer-than-average temperatures for April through July. Precipitation has no clear signal, but northwest and north-central Iowa remain dry in the deeper soil profile, and La Niña could bring drier summer conditions to parts of the Midwest.
Dry subsoil in northern Iowa and a possible drier summer raise yield risk for corn and soybeans. That supports prices at the margin for feed buyers.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.