ANALYSIS: China-owned Smithfield signals fresh corn, soymeal demand blow

After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Apr 15, 2021More wheat feeding and pig disease outbreaks pose double threat to China soymeal demand | Reuters+2.3%
• Sep 11, 2018African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand-1.8%
• Apr 24, 2019Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank-1.5%
• Mar 10, 2021Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand-9.5%
• Apr 23, 2020Closure of US meat plants raises more concerns over long-term corn feed demand-2.4%

After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Apr 15, 2021More wheat feeding and pig disease outbreaks pose double threat to China soymeal demand | Reuters+3.2%
• Feb 26, 2021China's soymeal futures plunge on pig disease concerns-1.3%
• Sep 11, 2018African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand-4.1%
• Apr 24, 2019Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank-1.7%
• Feb 28, 2019China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%-1.0%

After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.

• Oct 28, 2019Chicken Producers Soar as China Signals End of U.S. Ban - Bloomberg-2.0%
• Sep 11, 2018African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand+4.5%
• Apr 24, 2019Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank-1.8%
• Feb 28, 2019China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%+2.0%
• Aug 27, 2018China's soybean, soymeal futures fall on African swine fever worries-3.6%