Analysts reviewing the April WASDE said US corn stocks were slightly above trade expectations while the soybean carryout came in well above the 430 million bushel trade guess. USDA cut Argentine and Brazilian soybean crops, supporting beans after the report.
Analysts expect lost DDGS supply to push feed users toward soybean meal and boost crush.
Soybean meal demand may rise as ethanol byproducts disappear from the feed market, supporting meal prices. Large US soybean stocks offset the South American cuts, so the net effect on soybean prices is limited.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.