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World Grain reports that COVID-19 has disrupted shipping and grain trade, with infections above 770,000 and deaths near 36,000 by early April 2020. Physical grain and soybean movement has continued relatively smoothly so far, though governments are prioritizing domestic markets and currency markets are volatile.
Pressure on supply chains and export prioritization can tighten physical availability and widen basis and futures volatility for feed grains and soybeans.
world-grain.comMichael KingApr 1, 2020After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 163 past neutral logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and -0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
