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Credit Agricole CIB Research argues that negative rates have had mixed effects on currencies, with limited impact on the yen and Swiss franc. It contends that negative US rates could erode the dollar's rate advantage and make it a funding currency, requiring a weaker dollar to attract foreign buyers of lower-yielding US assets.
A possible weaker dollar under negative US rates would support dollar-priced commodity exports, but the outcome is uncertain and the note is analysis rather than a new policy action.
teletrade.orgMay 13, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
