K-State extension economists said COVID-19 cut Kansas beef slaughter to as low as 72,000 head a day in April, about 40% below 2019. Harvest had recovered to 91,000 head by May 13, but capacity remains well below normal.
Reduced packing capacity leaves more cattle waiting on feed, which lowers live cattle and feeder prices while raising feeding costs and feed demand.
After 29 past bearish logistics events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.0% to +0.5%), and -3.7% over 20.
After 20 past bearish logistics events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.0%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Slaughter recovering from 72,000 to 91,000 head a day by May 13 improves packer demand for cattle and supports the futures rebound.