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Hog slaughter is recovering slowly but remains well below capacity after COVID-19 outbreaks forced plant closures and slowdowns. Daily slaughter in May was still roughly 52,000 head short of the level needed to clear the backlog of market hogs.
A growing backlog of hogs on farms signals reduced near-term hog marketings and lower hog prices, cutting feed demand from producers.
After 117 past bearish disease events, HOGS moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.