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US wheat futures rose sharply on forecasts of hot, dry weather across the US Midwest and Plains, with July Kansas HRW, Minneapolis spring wheat and Chicago SRW all gaining several dollars per tonne. The IGC's May report raised 2020/21 world wheat output to 766 million tonnes while cutting consumption, and the European Commission lowered its EU soft wheat forecast to 122.5 million tonnes.
A weaker dollar also supported prices.
Dry US weather and a smaller EU crop tighten new-crop wheat supply, which tends to lift wheat as a feed-grain substitute and supports feed costs. Offsetting record world stocks limit the upside.
graintrade.com.uaMay 29, 2020After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 13 past bearish weather events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
