
Brazil's soybean exports are spiking as China's hog herd recovers from African swine fever, with Brazil exporting a record 16.3 million tons in April, up over 70% year-on-year. USDA projects Brazil's 2019/20 soybean exports at about 84 million tons, and China's agriculture ministry raised its soybean import forecast to 91 million tons.
Rising Chinese feed demand from herd rebuilding supports soybean and soymeal import demand, tightening export availability and supporting prices for soybeans and meal.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.