
The May WASDE pegged new-crop corn ending stocks at 3.318 billion bushels, below the 3.4 billion expected, and production at a record 16 billion bushels using 97 million planted acres and a 178.5 bushel trend yield. Corn for ethanol was set at 5.2 billion bushels, below the typical baseline of about 5.5 billion.
Record production combined with lower-than-trend ethanol demand builds supply that is bearish for corn prices, though USDA's demand estimates may be revised as the season progresses.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.