Ukraine and Russia's 2019/20 grain exports were close to projected levels, with Ukraine shipping 55.3 million tonnes and Russia 38.9 million tonnes. The June WASDE cut Ukraine's 2020/21 wheat crop forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes, while Russia's wheat export forecast was raised to 36 million tonnes.
A smaller Ukrainian wheat crop combined with a larger Russian export forecast leaves Black Sea supply roughly balanced. Prices are unlikely to move much unless the crop estimates change.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.