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A Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City analysis finds that US soybean exports fell 21% and 14% below the previous five-year average in 2018 and 2019 after Chinese tariffs were imposed. Some exports were reshuffled to other buyers.
The author warns tariffs could expand foreign supply and reduce long-term US competitiveness.
Lasting loss of Chinese demand and expanded competing supply from Brazil and others weigh on the long-term US soybean price outlook and export share. The study is background rather than a new market shock.
kansascityfed.orgCortney CowleyJun 17, 2020After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
