
The AgriHQ New Zealand milk price forecast for 2017-18 rose one cent to $6.10 per kg milksolids after the January 2 Global Dairy Trade auction. Dry soils restricting pasture growth are curbing milk production, which is tightening whole milk powder supply.
Lower NZ milk intakes from drought-limited pasture reduce whole milk powder output, supporting global WMP prices. The forecast remains below Fonterra's $6.40 outlook, so further upside depends on continued tight supply.
After 32 past bullish weather events, MILK moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.