
Whole milk powder prices at the GDT auction rose nearly 20%, reaching their highest level in over two years. Economists raised farmgate milk price forecasts after Fonterra revised its 2016/17 production estimate lower because of heavy October rain in key dairy regions.
Wet-weather-driven production cuts and stronger Chinese demand signal a tighter market, supporting higher milk prices and farm payouts.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Heavy October rain cut NZ output expectations and WMP rose nearly 20%, tightening global supply and supporting US dairy prices.
Whole milk powder jumped nearly 20% to a two-year high on lower NZ production estimates from heavy rain, a supply-driven global price shock.