
Most US refineries are expected to restart after Hurricane Laura, though a report suggested Citgo's 418,000 b/d Lake Charles refinery could be shut for four to six weeks. ULSD diesel on CME settled at $1.2162/gallon on Friday, down 3.14 cents from Monday.
Refinery outages reduce diesel output, but the expected short restarts and the price decline suggest limited upward pressure on diesel costs for freight and farm operations.
After 50 past weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -4.8% to +5.7%), and +8.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.