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Global distillate refining margins fell sharply on weak demand. Milder weather has reduced heating demand, and inventories are already high in the Northeast, the largest US heating oil market.
Weaker distillate margins signal lower refinery output incentives and softer diesel prices. Lower energy costs can ease transport and processing expenses for feed producers.
After 50 past weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -4.8% to +5.7%), and +8.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.