
The USDA's global rice outlook forecasts lower world trade in 2020, with Thailand's exports falling to 6.5 million tonnes, its lowest since 1998, after drought hurt its crop. Vietnam is now projected as the second-largest exporter, and Brazil's exports are up about two-thirds year to date.
Limited exportable supplies and high prices from Thailand and other Southeast Asian exporters tighten global rice availability. Export prices are likely to stay firm, while weaker import demand in West Africa limits gains.
After 189 past bullish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.