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Analysis finds the Thai 5% broken rice benchmark has risen 22% since India's July 2023 non-basmati white rice export ban took effect. Exports of India's restricted products are down sharply, and Vietnam and Thailand face El Niño-related production losses.
Reduced Indian exports and El Niño losses in other major exporters keep global rice prices elevated and push importers toward alternative suppliers.
After 189 past bullish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.